Final solution to Kashmir problem , which included repealing disputed Article 370 and 35A , became feasible soon once China entered the scene via CPEC corridor project going through Pak Occupied Kashmir in Gilgit and Baltistan area .
I had hinted this solution in my Quora answer written in October 2018 https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-feasible-options-for-resolving-the-Kashmir-issue-in-the-immediate-future-legally-or-otherwise/answer/%E0%A4%AF%E0%A4%B6%E0%A4%B8-%E0%A4%B6%E0%A5%81%E0%A4%95%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%B2-Yashas-Shukla
Sometimes , what politics cannot solve , is solved by Economics and trade. Kashmir problem could not be solved because it was started by Britain and western powers had no interest in its solution and they were not benefiting or losing by its continuance and yes , they could sell weapons on both sides .
CPEC , The Game Changer
On 20 April 2015, Pakistan and China signed an agreement to commence work on the $46 billion agreement, which is roughly 20% of Pakistan’s annual GDP, called as China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The CPEC Proposed Route includes Gilgit & Baltistan Pak Occupied Kashmir as shown in map below :
The Twist in Kashmir Tale
With so much big infrastructure plan worth 62 Billion dollars and involvement of Superpower China , things had to change soon .After committing funds and plan in 2015 , China stressed upon Pakistani leadership to resolve the status of Gilgit , Baltistan Federal Administered TribalArea ( FATA just like Union Territory in India) as 5th State of Sovereign Pakistan . China cannot invest huge money in a disputed area .
So, the process started in 2015 .Priyanka Singh wrote on 4 March 2016 in her post in https://idsa.in/idsacomments/gilgit-baltistan-as-fifth-province_psingh_040316
A high level committee in Islamabad is cogitating over a proposal to amalgamate Gilgit Baltistan as Pakistan’s fifth province. Previously referred to as Northern Areas, Gilgit Baltistan constitutes a major geographical chunk of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Located in a strategically pivotal positon, it serves as the only land link between Pakistan and China. Media-spurred conjectures indicate that the provincial gambit is being done at China’s behest.
Apparently, China is concerned with Gilgit Baltistan’s undetermined political status and recurrent local protests in the region for representation in Islamabad. Hence, China is keen to get rid of all roadblocks before taking the grand geo-economic plunge with an investment of $46 billion in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that will connect Western China with the warm waters of the Arabian Sea via Pakistan. The CPEC package includes a string of infrastructure, power and connectivity projects lined up till the Gwadar Port in the restive province of Balochistan in Pakistan. The ongoing political contemplation within Pakistan over statutory warranty for Gilgit Baltistan is being linked to reassuring China and providing a constitutional shield to the strategic corridor worth billions.
So, in May 2018 ,Gilgit Baltistan Order-2018 was issued for making it similar to a Pakistani State with an Assembly and chief minister . It was challenged by locals in Highcourt but subsequently Pakistan Supreme Court approved it in August 2018 . Under the Gilgit-Baltistan Order-2018, which replaced the GB Empowerment and Self-Governance Order of 2009, all powers exercised by the GB council, including passing legislation regarding mineral, hydropower and tourism sectors, were shifted to the GB Assembly.
How India Reacted to All This Development ?
So, just after May 2018 GB Order, India protested officially with Pakistan against annexing this disputed area of POK .
The Deputy High Commissioner of Pakistan was summoned on Friday and a strong protest was lodged on recent order by Supreme Court of Pakistan on the so-called “Gilgit-Baltistan” which is an interference in India’s internal affairs.
It was reiterated that the entire state of Jammu and Kashmir, which also includes the so-called ‘Gilgit-Baltistan’ has been, is and shall remain an integral part of India. Pakistan government or judiciary have no locus standi on territories illegally and forcibly occupied by it. Any action to alter the status of these occupied territories by Pakistan has no legal basis whatsoever.
You keep your part and I keep my part .
This was the solution suggested many times by both sides and International arbitrators also in last 70 years and it was acceptable to Indian side also but Pakistan had too much emotional capital invested because of religion and its very basis of formation on 2 nation theory . So, it was derailed by Pakistan Army whenever it was moved forward by political leadership of Pakistan .
With involvement of China , both sides complied and this solution became feasible , acceptable even to Pakistani army establishment .
China must have signalled Indian leadership to go through the similar exercise for Indian administered Jammu & Kashmir and superpowers must have been taken into confidence for this .
Following the Pakistan methodology of Gilgit and Baltistan annexation to Pakistan State , India also acted Constitutional Changes on 5th August 2019 for unconditional merger of Jammuand Kashmir into Indian State , removing its special status and making it Central government controlled territory.
The Future Ahead Post 370 Dilution and 35A Removal
In my view , whatever reactions are coming from Pakistan are just crocodile tears and dumb charade game . Inside , they knew it was coming and that was necessary also as they are bleeding economically and they are not in a position to sustain it for long .
Also , democracy was whittled in Pakistan because of military which survived on Kashmir dispute . Now political leadership wants army to go back to barracks and its dominance curtailed . With Kashmir problem gone , military , terrorism , clergy’s role is bound to get reduced .
World leaders are already aware of this solution , so not much is going to happen anywhere.
Within a year , Pakistan would react by passing a similar Act in its Parliament which would make rest of POK as 6th State of Pakistan . It will excuse that since nobody supported Pakistan internationally to safeguard interests of Kashmiri people , so it is giving POK its sovereign protection by annexing it in Pakistan , otherwise India may take it by force .
In this geopolitical game , Kashmiris got shortchanged and fooled by Pakistan , Hurriat leaders of Kashmir , Jehadi of Pakistan , PDP, NC like outfits who made financial empires in last 30 years of Kashmir militancy.
That is what I said in start that Economics can solve Political problems much better than politicians.
You can see how, during Moon-Jupiter -Moon Pratyantar period from 13 July 2019 to 24 August 2019, it is connecting to 3rd House of neighbours, which Moon as Mahadasha and Pratyantar dasha lord is presiding and Jupiter placed in 6th house of disputes , owning 8th house of secrecy / mystery and 11th house of gains . This may have maximum emotional value till 24th August 2019 and cause some violence and after that it may fade by December 2019 when Jupiter antardasha ends.
Following is transit chart on 5th August 2019 with respect to India’s cancer Moonsign .
You can see that Jupiter is aspecting 4 planets over Moonsign , Moon itself in 3rd house of Parakaram and neighbours and also aspected by Saturn , 7th and 8th lord . and placed in 6th . So, it shows Vipreet Rajyoga where you gain after losing something . Here we lose POK but gain a solution to long pending problem after violence .
In Short term , next 2 months are critical when Saturn+Ketu will have degree conjunction .
Based on both Lagna and Transit chart , next antardasha of Moon-Saturn will be difficult , Jupiter going to 6th house and Saturn to 7th house by end of year , shows year long problems in 2020 in solving umpteen issues in this new arrangement announced by government . It will settle by April 2022 and peace may return by 2025 once 8th Saturn is also over in transit.