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Analysis of Assembly Elections - 2017
As they say , winner takes all , currently winning Modi-Shah pair is taking all credit , but if we do a fair analysis , we will find that, in 5 assembly elections and even last year's Bihar assembly election , there exists a clear guideline by voters for getting a full majority in elections :
1. If a party has not performed in 5 year term and engaged in corruption , there will be a strong anti-incumbacy factor , where voters would remove such party by huge vote margins to any credible opposition party .
2. If the performance of the party is above average and its leader heading the govt has clean image , the voters will return the govt , particularly if there is no credible opposition .
In Bihar , the govt headed by Sh Nitish Kumar was above average in performance and people believed in clean image of the CM , so despite same Modi-Shah pair trying their best to uproot the govt , voters in Bihar returned the govt despite Lalu association with Nitish Kumar . Nitish Kumar was already projected as CM for coalition govt .
In Loksabha elections 2009 , UPA-1 had average performance , had a clean image of PM Manmohan Singh and absence of credible opposition led to Congress return . In 2014 , UPA-2 had performed miserably , got tainted in scams and BJP had credible opposition face of Modi , so BJP returned in power . BJP would have won even without making tall promises ( 15 Lakh in each account etc ) in such situation.
Subsequent assembly elections result in Haryana , Jharkhand , Maharashtra and J&K were also on same lines . Assam , West Bengal , Odisha , Tamilnadu election results also proved this .
In current 5 assembly elections , Punjab had strong anti-incumbacy , just like UPA-2 of Manmohan Singh . Akalis were perceived as worst performer and BJP as junior partner did nothing to prevent them . People like Siddhu had to quit the party . AAP could not provide a credible opposition or a CM face alternative because of Kejriwal's whimsical style . Therefore , Congress got a clear walkover , without promising stars because it had credible Amrinder Singh against non-performer Parkash Singh Badal .
Goa also had a strong anti-incumbacy against the CM and BJP . Modi-Shah pair knew it but did nothing before elections , so many loyal workers left party before elections . Just before election day , Modi-Shah duo promised voters that honest Manohar Parrikar would be brought back and that made some difference and BJP could get 13 seats . Post elections , it was Manohar Parrikar's clean image , which sealed the deal with coalition partners . The opposition in Goa was divided and Congress had no alternative face compared to Manohar Parrikar , so it could not reach the majority mark in elections or could manage 3-4 MLAs after elections .
In Manipur , there was strong anti-incumbacy against CM Ibobi Singh , but Congress always assumed that in North East states , there is no national party alternative to Congress and regional parties are divided so , it will form the govt . This attitude cost Congress dearly in Manipur , where BJP filled the political vacuum for anti-incumbacy .
Story was same in U.P and Uttarakhand . Both the states had strong anti-incumbacy and not so credible image of party and CM . BJP was ready as credible party , with Modi brand , so despite not having a CM face , got a thumping majority in both states .
Jupiter , the planet for wisdom became retrograde in first week of February and that increased the anti-incumbacy sentiments in public during voting .
With rising number of educated and young voters taking over the old voters , performance of govt and image of the leader projected for CM and PM becomes a major factor for win or defeat of party . Other things like use of social media , PK like management , caste and religion etc to win an election are turning a fluke .
U.P Elections & Reversal in CM's Personality
It is very difficult to predict who will become next CM in UP like scenario ,even if you know BJP will win . Anybody can be thrust upon the people by BJP high command . That is why , I always try to use Contrast Theory , which says that next CM would be generally opposite in characteristics . I used it to predict Donald Trump presidency in US because , there candidate was known earlier .
In U.P. , the known candidates like Sh Akhilesh Yadav and Ms Mayawati were ruled out but BJP had not declared CM candidate . Sh. Rajnath Singh matched to some extent . Now , when Yogi Adityanath has been sworn in as U.P. CM , it is quite easy to see the contrast :
1. Reversal in Name ( Akhilesh Yadav - AY to Yogi Adityanath -YA )
2. Enjoying the power with own family along with 36 member extended family .No problem in State affected his smiling face. In contrast ,the new CM is bachelor and ascetic and less likely to smile .
3. Earlier CM was dubbed as powerless Babua CM , scolded often by father and overpowered by senior cabinet ministers. By contrast , Yogi may even veto BJP high command's diktats . He has his own Hindu Vahini organization to fall back .
4. Earlier CM depended on minority votes . New CM believes in majority votes .
5. Former CM had child like speech delivery while new CM is just opposite of that with impressive and hard hitting speech .
6. With vast experience of 5 terms MP and Gorakh Dham administration, it can be expected that he would turn out a better administrator.
What Next ?
As I had discussed elsewhere , entry of Saturn in Sagittarius from January 2017 till January 2020 means religion and nationalism will be in focus worldwide . Subsequent Jupiter+Saturn conjunction during 2020-2022 will result in new world order .
U.P. election results and choice of new CM of BJP in U.P. point to same direction . The Ayodhya dispute is likely to get resolved , after some squabble, in current tenure of UP Assembly till 2022 as both these astrological phenomenon will be over in this period .
Success of Yogi in U.P. will pave the way for his elevation to PM's post, as happened with PM Modi . There will be a race among all BJP CMs for PM's post after 2019 LS elections ,when Modi decides to exit. Yogi has better chances for becoming PM , only if he proves himself a secular and good administrator like Nitish Kumar .